When the ceasefire between the United States and Iran was just agreed upon, Israeli attacks in southern Lebanon have become increasingly intense. Western defense analysts assess that Tehran sees this situation as a strategic opportunity to weaken the trust within the US-Israel alliance. This conflict is not merely a regional dispute โ it has the potential to shake the global security order and affect Indonesia's foreign policy and national security policies.
The Unrooted Peace Agreement
Several weeks ago, the US and Iran signed an agreement banning direct attacks between the two countries. However, Israel โ which is not bound by the agreement โ continues to carry out air and artillery operations in southern Lebanon under the pretext of targeting Hezbollah infrastructure. According to a report by *Republika*, Western defense analysts state that the continuation of Israeli attacks actually benefits Iran: Tehran can show the world that the US has failed to control its ally, thus damaging Washington's credibility as a regional security guarantor.
Iran's Strategy: Exploiting Gaps in the Alliance
The analysts emphasized that Iran's efforts to weaken the US-Israel coalition are not new โ but this time, they are carried out in a more sensitive context. Internal tensions in the US, especially the differences in stance between the Biden administration and pro-Israel groups in Congress, have become gaps that Iran exploits. With the escalation in Lebanon, Iran hopes public pressure in the United States on foreign policy will increase โ particularly among voters tired of prolonged conflicts. This approach aligns with previous patterns in Yemen and Syria, but this time it targets the core relationship between two major powers in the Middle East.
Real Risks for TNI Mission and Domestic Stability
For Indonesia, the impact is concrete and multidimensional. More than 1,000 TNI personnel are part of the UN Peacekeeping Mission in Lebanon (UNIFIL) as the Garuda Contingent. The escalation of Israeli attacks increases the risk to their safety โ especially in zones near the border with Syria and Hezbollah operational areas. At the domestic level, developments in the Middle East consistently affect public opinion, as Indonesia has the largest Muslim population in the world. The Indonesian Foreign Minister has repeatedly called for a ceasefire through diplomatic channels, but international responses to Israeli attacks have yet to result in real changes on the ground.
Economic threats are also real. If the conflict spreads and disrupts strategic maritime routes such as the Strait of Hormuz, global crude oil prices could surge sharply. Indonesia still relies on oil imports โ rising prices would strain energy subsidies, worsen the budget deficit, and trigger inflation. Low- and middle-income communities will be most affected by the rise in prices of basic goods and transportation.
Preventive Diplomacy as a Priority
If Iran's efforts succeed in widening the gap between the US and Israel, the balance of power in the Middle East will shift significantly. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates โ which have been in the US security orbit โ may consider strategic adjustments, while Israel's isolation could deepen further. For Indonesia, which served as a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council (2019โ2020) and has been active in the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), this momentum demands more vocal and measured diplomacy. Preventive diplomacy, rather than reactive, must be a priority โ including strengthening coordination with non-aligned countries and regional mediators.
However, Indonesia must also maintain a balance. On one hand, there is a strong commitment to the principle of justice for Palestine and Lebanon; on the other hand, there are important economic and security relationships with the US and Western countries. Experience shows that consistency in principles โ rather than explicit alignment โ strengthens Indonesia's credibility on the international stage.
Concrete Actions, Not Just Attitudes
This conflict reminds us that global geopolitics no longer moves along a binary axis, but within a network of overlapping interests. For Indonesia, this is not the time to wait or merely issue symbolic statements. Concrete actions are needed: strengthening protection for TNI personnel in Lebanon, accelerating energy price fluctuation anticipation schemes, and enhancing cross-regional diplomatic capacity. The US-Iran peace agreement is fragile โ but precisely in this space, Indonesia has the opportunity to prove that active neutrality is not a passive stance, but a form of measured and responsible leadership.